On April 8, 2025, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton made a bold announcement that has sent shockwaves through the Texas political landscape: he is officially running for U.S. Senate, setting up a high-stakes challenge against incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the 2026 Republican Primary.
Paxton’s declaration, shared via a post on X, underscores his intent to align closely with former President Donald Trump’s agenda and disrupt the Washington, D.C. establishment.
This Ken Paxton Senate run marks a pivotal moment in Texas politics, highlighting the growing divide within the GOP between its hardline conservative wing and the traditional establishment.
Here’s the post that sparked widespread attention:
It's official. I’m running for U.S. Senate to fight for President Trump’s agenda and take a sledgehammer to the D.C. establishment.
— Attorney General Ken Paxton (@KenPaxtonTX) April 8, 2025
Together, let's send John Cornyn packing: https://t.co/rQl0P2UnWU pic.twitter.com/1KIajC0JhN
Post by Attorney General Ken Paxton (@KenPaxtonTX) on 23:39 2025-04-08 UTC
“It’s official. I’m running for U.S. Senate to fight for President Trump’s agenda and take a sledgehammer to the D.C. establishment. Together, let’s send John Cornyn packing:
Accompanying the post was an image from a Fox News segment featuring Paxton, with the headline “TRUMP HAS LOCKED DOWN THE BORDER,” signaling his alignment with Trump’s policies and his intent to capitalize on that momentum in his Ken Paxton Senate run.
Why Ken Paxton’s Senate Run Against John Cornyn Matters
The Ken Paxton Senate run is more than just a primary challenge—it’s a battle for the soul of the Texas Republican Party. Paxton, a staunch conservative and Trump ally, positions himself as a disruptor against what he calls the “D.C. establishment,” embodied by John Cornyn, a four-term senator who has been a fixture in Texas politics for over two decades. Cornyn, a former Senate Majority Whip, has long represented the business-minded, traditional wing of the GOP, but his positions on issues like gun control and military aid to Ukraine have drawn ire from the party’s increasingly dominant far-right faction.
Paxton’s announcement comes at a time when Texas is trending redder, with conservative voters showing stronger support for hardline figures like Paxton. According to a February 2025 poll by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, Paxton enjoys a 62% approval rating among conservative voters, with only 12% disapproval. In contrast, Cornyn’s approval stands at 45%, with 26% disapproval—a significant gap, especially among “strong Republican” voters who dominate low-turnout primaries. Among this group, Paxton’s disapproval is just 5%, compared to Cornyn’s 18%. These numbers suggest that Paxton enters the Ken Paxton Senate run with a clear edge in voter sentiment.
Key Issues in the Ken Paxton vs. John Cornyn Senate Race
The Ken Paxton vs. John Cornyn Senate race is poised to be one of the most contentious Republican primaries in recent Texas history, with several key issues at the forefront:
Gun Rights: A Major Flashpoint
Gun rights have emerged as a central issue in this race, with groups like Texas Gun Rights (@TXGunRights) heavily criticizing Cornyn’s record. In a related X post, they detailed Cornyn’s history of supporting gun control measures, including the 2017 FIX-NICS Act, which they claim expanded the NICS Gun Ban Registry by 90%, and the 2022 Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, which allocated $1.4 billion toward gun control efforts, including red flag laws. They argue that Cornyn’s actions have undermined Second Amendment rights, particularly for military veterans, with 250,000 allegedly losing their rights without due process.
Post by Texas Gun Rights (@TXGunRights) on 14:27 2025-04-08 UTC
“So, we hear @JohnCornyn is BEGGING for Trump’s endorsement to avoid a primary with AG @KenPaxtonTX … Let’s take a look at Cornyn’s ANTI-GUN record 🤡: ❌FIX-NICS: Cornyn’s 2017 gun control bill ballooned the NICS Gun Ban Registry by 90% — now 33 million strong! …”
Paxton, on the other hand, has positioned himself as a staunch defender of gun rights, earning support from pro-gun advocates who see him as a true conservative. This issue could sway primary voters, especially in a state where Second Amendment rights are a top priority.
Alignment with Trump’s Agenda
Paxton’s campaign is heavily tied to Donald Trump’s agenda, as evidenced by his X post promising to “fight for President Trump’s agenda.” This alignment resonates with Texas GOP voters, many of whom remain loyal to Trump. Cornyn, however, has faced criticism for his past skepticism about Trump’s electability in 2024 and his support for policies—like military aid to Ukraine—that clash with the MAGA wing of the party. KEN Paxton’s promise to “take a sledgehammer to the D.C. establishment” further appeals to voters frustrated with career politicians like Cornyn.
Paxton’s Legal History vs. Cornyn’s Establishment Ties
Ken Paxton’s Senate run isn’t without baggage. He has faced significant legal challenges, including a 2015 indictment on felony securities fraud charges and a 2023 impeachment by the Texas House (from which he was acquitted). Cornyn has been vocal about these issues, once stating, “Hard to run from prison, Ken,” in response to Paxton’s criticisms. However, the recent dismissal of a federal bribery probe against Paxton has cleared a major hurdle, bolstering his political resiliency and giving him a stronger platform to challenge Cornyn.
Cornyn, meanwhile, is seen as a symbol of the GOP old guard. His long tenure and leadership roles in the Senate have earned him allies in Washington, but they’ve also made him a target for conservatives who view him as out of touch with the party’s current direction.
Polling Insights: Who Leads in the Ken Paxton vs. John Cornyn Senate Race?
Polling data provides a clear snapshot of the current dynamics in the Ken Paxton vs. John Cornyn Senate race. The Texas Politics Project poll from February 2025 shows Paxton with a significant lead in approval among Republican voters:
- Ken Paxton: 62% approval, 12% disapproval (5% disapproval among “strong Republicans”).
- John Cornyn: 45% approval, 26% disapproval (18% disapproval among “strong Republicans”).
Among Republican-identifying voters overall, Paxton’s approval rating is 60%, compared to Cornyn’s 48%, according to a polling aggregate by the same group. These numbers suggest that Paxton has a stronger base of support among the GOP primary electorate, which tends to be more conservative and engaged.
Social media sentiment also leans heavily in Paxton’s favor. Influential conservative voices on X, such as @DC_Draino, @charliekirk11, and @LauraLoomer, have rallied behind Paxton, with posts calling Cornyn a “RINO” (Republican In Name Only) and praising Paxton as a “tried and true MAGA Republican.” This grassroots enthusiasm could translate into higher voter turnout for Paxton in the primary.
Estimating a Winner in the Ken Paxton Senate Run Against John Cornyn
Based on current polling, social media trends, and the political climate in Texas, Ken Paxton is the likely winner in the Ken Paxton vs. John Cornyn Senate race. Here’s why:
- Voter Sentiment: Paxton’s higher approval ratings among conservative and “strong Republican” voters give him a clear advantage in a low-turnout primary, where the most motivated voters dominate.
- Alignment with Trump: Paxton’s close ties to Trump and his focus on MAGA priorities resonate with the GOP base, while Cornyn’s more moderate stances (e.g., on gun control and Ukraine aid) have alienated some conservatives.
- Grassroots Support: The enthusiastic response on X from conservative influencers and groups like Texas Gun Rights suggests Paxton has stronger momentum heading into the primary.
However, Cornyn’s advantages—his incumbency, fundraising prowess, and establishment support—should not be underestimated. He has fended off challenges from the right before, and his campaign could gain traction if he secures Trump’s endorsement, which he is reportedly seeking. Still, as of April 2025, Paxton’s momentum and voter support make him the frontrunner in the Ken Paxton Senate run.
What’s Next for the Ken Paxton Senate Run?
The Ken Paxton Senate run is set to be a defining moment for the Texas GOP, with implications for the national Republican Party as well. If Paxton unseats Cornyn, it would signal a further rightward shift in Texas politics and a victory for the MAGA wing over the establishment. For now, Paxton’s campaign is off to a strong start, fueled by his alignment with Trump and his appeal to conservative voters on issues like gun rights.
As the 2026 primary approaches, all eyes will be on this Ken Paxton vs. John Cornyn Senate race—a clash of titans that could reshape the future of Texas and the U.S. Senate. Stay tuned for updates as this historic battle unfolds.