🚨 ELECTION NIGHT UPDATE: Texas voters are heading to the polls TODAY (Tuesday, May 26, 2026) for the high-stakes Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff between four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Polls close at 7:00 PM Central Time. This race has become the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history (over $165 million in ads) and a major test of President Trump’s influence over the GOP.
Current status: The winner of tonight’s GOP runoff will face Democratic nominee James Talarico (state Rep.) in the November 3, 2026 general election. Texas remains a solidly Republican state, but the brutal primary has exposed deep party divisions.
Key Race Facts & Latest Developments
| Candidate | Background | Endorsements | Polling / Prediction Markets (as of May 26) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton (R) | Texas Attorney General, MAGA-aligned, survived impeachment trial | President Donald Trump (endorsed May 19 – game-changer) | Heavy favorite Polls: +8 to +21 lead Kalshi: 95–96% chance Polymarket: 96% chance |
| John Cornyn (R – incumbent) | Four-term U.S. Senator, Senate GOP leadership | Senate Majority Leader John Thune, National Border Patrol Council, business/GOP establishment | Underdog post-Trump endorsement |
Endorsements & Campaign Highlights
- Trump’s bombshell endorsement (May 19): Called Paxton a “true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas.” It instantly shifted momentum and prediction markets from ~60/40 to 95/5 in Paxton’s favor.
- Cornyn has emphasized his experience, 99% Trump voting record, and electability in the general election.
- Paxton has positioned himself as the fighter against the “Washington establishment.”
General Election Outlook (November 2026)
The GOP nominee is heavily favored to win Texas in November, but the choice matters:
- If Paxton wins tonight: Establishment Republicans worry his scandals could make the race closer than expected against Talarico. Some recent head-to-head polls show it near-even (Talarico ~44%, Paxton ~40%).
- If Cornyn wins (unlikely): Seen as the safer, more electable choice by Senate GOP leaders.
- Overall race rating: Likely Republican (Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball).
Relevant Viral X Posts from Election Night
- @OANN (just now): “Voters in Texas are heading to the polls in a high-stakes Republican Senate runoff between Attorney General Ken Paxton and incumbent Senator John Cornyn.” View post (live coverage)
- @AdImpact_Pol (today): “It’s primary runoff day in #TXPol! … the #TXSen primary has seen $165.1M in ad spending, making it the most expensive Senate primary on record.” View post
- @CNBC (today): “Cornyn and Paxton go head-to-head in Texas Republican Senate primary after Trump endorsement.” View post
- @CNBCPolitics: Direct link to full story on the Trump endorsement impact. View post
