Last updated September 7, 2026. Paxton vs Talarico is a toss-up on paper. Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994. Midterms reward people who already vote. That is Ken Paxton’s path. These five groups decide whether he closes it.
1. Soft Republicans in Paxton vs Talarico
James Talarico already has almost all Democrats. The August University of Texas poll had him at 91 percent of Democrats. Paxton was at 79 percent of Republicans. Weak Republicans were the opening: 54 percent Paxton, 11 percent Talarico, 29 percent unmarked.
That is Paxton’s first job. Texas Republicans usually come home in a midterm once the nominee is set. MAGA Inc put $10 million in on September 5. The Dallas convention is September 9–10. If soft Republicans lock in, Paxton vs Talarico stops being a 40–40 race.
2. Independents who still have no pick
Talarico leads named independents in most surveys. In the same UT poll, 43 percent of independents still had no preference. Independents are a small share of Texas. They cannot beat a united GOP by themselves. They can keep a toss-up alive if Paxton never introduces himself to them.
Paxton’s close is cost of living, the border, and Trump’s coalition. Talarico’s close is character attacks. The unmarked independents are the cheap remaining votes in Paxton vs Talarico.
3. Latino turnout in a midterm
Several polls show Talarico ahead with Hispanic voters after Donald Trump split that group in Texas in 2024. Preference is not turnout. A lot of that 2024 shift was presidential-only voters. Midterms shrink that list.
If those irregular voters stay home, Paxton’s older and rural base is a larger share of the electorate. That is why Paxton vs Talarico still runs through South Texas and the big-metro Latino precincts — and through who actually votes there in October.
4. Suburban women
Women break toward Talarico. Men break toward Paxton. Times/Siena had an 18-point split both ways. UT August still showed more women unmarked than men.
Paxton does not need to win suburban women by 20 points. He needs to keep the gap from becoming a blowout in Collin, Fort Bend, Williamson, and the Houston suburbs. That is the second spend target after weak Republicans.
5. Voters who always show up
Talarico runs best under 30. Paxton runs best at 65 and older, with men, rural counties, and white evangelical voters. Those last groups vote in midterms. Young voters often do not.
So the fifth group is not a mystery identity. It is the people who will stand in line October 19–30. Rural Texas already gave Paxton a 55–26 lead in the UT survey. If that floor holds and GOP turnout is normal for Texas, Paxton vs Talarico tilts toward the Republican.
All you naysayers who have written off Ken Paxton and are writing his epitaph clearly don’t know Ken Paxton. When he hired me to defend him in the sham impeachment, I said it directly to him then and it bears repeating now. “You will beat this impeachment.” (Which he did) “And… pic.twitter.com/0O3g2LaIhl
— Tony Buzbee (@TonyBuzbee2) September 7, 2026
What this means if you live here
A senator votes on the border, judges, SNAP funding, and health rules. Compare the household records in our Paxton vs Talarico explainer. Then register by October 5 at VoteTexas.gov.
Track the numbers on the UT poll tracker. Update this page after Dallas. Do not treat one survey as the result.